Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Another JOLT of Bad News on Jobs
Ellen Freilich
Reuters Jul 12, 2011
As if last week’s dismal employment report was not enough, the clumsily-dubbed Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, offers similarly discouraging signals. No wonder finding a job feels tough: there are nearly five workers (4.7) out there for every open position.
Credit Suisse Economist Henry Mo puts it rather starkly:
Labor demand is simply not strong enough to support a complete job recovery. Even if all job vacancies were filled overnight, almost 11 million workers would still be left unemployed.
Total job openings in May were about 40 percent above the trough of 2.1 million openings in July 2009. But the number is still more than one-third below pre-recession levels (4.56 million in 2007).
Weak labor demand is not limited to just a few sectors, like construction. It’s broad-based. That suggests a cyclical shortfall in aggregate demand, rather than a structural issue, Mo said.
Recent research from Goldman Sachs corroborates the notion that the job market rut is due to a weak economy rather than a mismatch in skills and available jobs. Goldman economists, like Federal Reserve officials, are still holding out for a second-half recovery. But they admit the prospects are looking dimmer, particularly with Europe’s debt crisis spreading and Washington still haggling over the debt ceiling.
The risks remain clearly on the downside. The biggest ones over the next month lie on the fiscal side, both in the US and in Europe
Reuters Jul 12, 2011
As if last week’s dismal employment report was not enough, the clumsily-dubbed Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, offers similarly discouraging signals. No wonder finding a job feels tough: there are nearly five workers (4.7) out there for every open position.
Credit Suisse Economist Henry Mo puts it rather starkly:
Labor demand is simply not strong enough to support a complete job recovery. Even if all job vacancies were filled overnight, almost 11 million workers would still be left unemployed.
Total job openings in May were about 40 percent above the trough of 2.1 million openings in July 2009. But the number is still more than one-third below pre-recession levels (4.56 million in 2007).
Weak labor demand is not limited to just a few sectors, like construction. It’s broad-based. That suggests a cyclical shortfall in aggregate demand, rather than a structural issue, Mo said.
Recent research from Goldman Sachs corroborates the notion that the job market rut is due to a weak economy rather than a mismatch in skills and available jobs. Goldman economists, like Federal Reserve officials, are still holding out for a second-half recovery. But they admit the prospects are looking dimmer, particularly with Europe’s debt crisis spreading and Washington still haggling over the debt ceiling.
The risks remain clearly on the downside. The biggest ones over the next month lie on the fiscal side, both in the US and in Europe
As Talks Stall, New Debt Plan Offered
Wall Street Journal, July 13, 2011.
McConnell Breaks GOP Ranks, Says the President Should Be Given Authority to Raise the Borrowing Limit on His Own.
By CAROL E. LEE, DAMIAN PALETTA and NAFTALI BENDAVID
Negotiations over a deficit-reduction agreement spiraled downward Tuesday as the White House and congressional leaders dug in on their positions even as anxiety mounted that they could wait too long to reach a deal to avoid a government default.
Sen. McConnell, left, with Sen. Jon Kyl, blasted the president.
In one sign that top leaders worry they won't reach a deal in time, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) unveiled a new proposal that would allow President Barack Obama to raise on his own the federal borrowing limit by $2.4 trillion in three installments before the end of 2012, unless two-thirds of Congress votes to block it. Because Mr. Obama would have to lift the debt ceiling, it could place any political fallout on him for doing so. But Republican conservatives protested that Mr. McConnell's plan would give up the leverage the GOP has to force the White House to approve government spending cuts in return for a debt-ceiling increase. And Mr. Obama also said Monday he would not sign any temporary debt-ceiling increase.
White House officials say the $14.29 trillion debt cap must be raised by Aug. 2 or the government will run out of cash to pay all its bills. Mr. Obama warned in an interview with CBS News that he could not guarantee that the government would be able to send checks to recipients of Social Security, military pensions and other government benefits next month without a debt-ceiling increase. "There may simply not be the money in the coffers to do it," he said.
Taken together, the developments of the last two days suggest that the collapse of the effort by Mr. Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) to strike a bigger and more historic deficit-cutting deal has made the effort to negotiate a smaller agreement harder rather than easier. House Republicans met privately on Capitol Hill before their leaders went to the White House for another round of deficit-reduction negotiations with Mr. Obama and their Democratic counterparts. The resounding consensus of the members was "we've got to stand our ground" against accepting any tax increases in an agreement and to keep pushing for more than $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, said one Republican who attended.
In the Republican caucus meeting, Mr. Boehner quickly dispelled any notion that he and Mr. Obama would continue to seek a $4 trillion deal including large cuts to entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and an overhaul of the tax code. "It became clear that they would only do entitlement reform if it came along with tax hikes," Mr. Boehner said, according to a person in the room. "Am I angry about it? I sure as hell am. I believe we are missing a great opportunity."
Mr. McConnell's proposal to allow the president to raise the debt ceiling came after he said in a Senate speech that the country cannot solve its fiscal problems with Mr. Obama as president. "After years of discussions and months of negotiations, I have little question that as long as this president is in the Oval Office, a real solution is unattainable," he said. It was not immediately clear whether his debt-limit proposal has broader support within his party, or with the Democrats who would be needed to approve it in the Senate. Such a complex plan is unlikely to pass anytime soon. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said he did not want to "trash" Mr. McConnell's proposal, but said that he needs to study it.
Meanwhile, some 470 executives—including the chief executives from Alcoa Inc., DuPont, Citigroup Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co.—released a letter to the president and Congress urging them to raise the debt ceiling.
Hitting the Ceiling
See what the federal debt limit has been at year-end since 1940.
The executives warned that a government default could throw financial markets into "disarray" and "this is a risk our country must not take." The letter came after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, and Financial Services Forum have spent months in briefings with lawmakers warning about default. In some of those meetings, officials said that if the U.S. government's bond rating were downgraded from Aaa to Aa, it could shave 1% off the gross domestic product and cost at least one million jobs. "Now is the time for our political leaders to act," the executives wrote. Treasury Department officials have said the government would only be able to spend the money it brings in each day through revenue if the debt ceiling isn't increased. The government is scheduled to pay $23 billion in Social Security benefits on Aug. 3, and it is only expected to bring in $12 billion that day in tax revenue, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Another emerging complication is a growing insistence by some Republicans that Congress pass a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution before a vote to increase the debt limit. The House is expected to vote on such an amendment next week, and Senate Republicans may force a vote in their chamber as well. Democrats say a balanced-budget amendment is a political sideshow that's unlikely to pass, especially because the GOP version requires super-majorities in Congress for raising taxes or spending.
Janet Hook contributed to this article.
Write to Damian Paletta at damian.paletta@wsj.com and Naftali Bendavid at naftali.bendavid@wsj.com
McConnell Breaks GOP Ranks, Says the President Should Be Given Authority to Raise the Borrowing Limit on His Own.
By CAROL E. LEE, DAMIAN PALETTA and NAFTALI BENDAVID
Negotiations over a deficit-reduction agreement spiraled downward Tuesday as the White House and congressional leaders dug in on their positions even as anxiety mounted that they could wait too long to reach a deal to avoid a government default.
Sen. McConnell, left, with Sen. Jon Kyl, blasted the president.
In one sign that top leaders worry they won't reach a deal in time, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) unveiled a new proposal that would allow President Barack Obama to raise on his own the federal borrowing limit by $2.4 trillion in three installments before the end of 2012, unless two-thirds of Congress votes to block it. Because Mr. Obama would have to lift the debt ceiling, it could place any political fallout on him for doing so. But Republican conservatives protested that Mr. McConnell's plan would give up the leverage the GOP has to force the White House to approve government spending cuts in return for a debt-ceiling increase. And Mr. Obama also said Monday he would not sign any temporary debt-ceiling increase.
White House officials say the $14.29 trillion debt cap must be raised by Aug. 2 or the government will run out of cash to pay all its bills. Mr. Obama warned in an interview with CBS News that he could not guarantee that the government would be able to send checks to recipients of Social Security, military pensions and other government benefits next month without a debt-ceiling increase. "There may simply not be the money in the coffers to do it," he said.
Taken together, the developments of the last two days suggest that the collapse of the effort by Mr. Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) to strike a bigger and more historic deficit-cutting deal has made the effort to negotiate a smaller agreement harder rather than easier. House Republicans met privately on Capitol Hill before their leaders went to the White House for another round of deficit-reduction negotiations with Mr. Obama and their Democratic counterparts. The resounding consensus of the members was "we've got to stand our ground" against accepting any tax increases in an agreement and to keep pushing for more than $2 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years, said one Republican who attended.
In the Republican caucus meeting, Mr. Boehner quickly dispelled any notion that he and Mr. Obama would continue to seek a $4 trillion deal including large cuts to entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and an overhaul of the tax code. "It became clear that they would only do entitlement reform if it came along with tax hikes," Mr. Boehner said, according to a person in the room. "Am I angry about it? I sure as hell am. I believe we are missing a great opportunity."
Mr. McConnell's proposal to allow the president to raise the debt ceiling came after he said in a Senate speech that the country cannot solve its fiscal problems with Mr. Obama as president. "After years of discussions and months of negotiations, I have little question that as long as this president is in the Oval Office, a real solution is unattainable," he said. It was not immediately clear whether his debt-limit proposal has broader support within his party, or with the Democrats who would be needed to approve it in the Senate. Such a complex plan is unlikely to pass anytime soon. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said he did not want to "trash" Mr. McConnell's proposal, but said that he needs to study it.
Meanwhile, some 470 executives—including the chief executives from Alcoa Inc., DuPont, Citigroup Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co.—released a letter to the president and Congress urging them to raise the debt ceiling.
Hitting the Ceiling
See what the federal debt limit has been at year-end since 1940.
The executives warned that a government default could throw financial markets into "disarray" and "this is a risk our country must not take." The letter came after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, and Financial Services Forum have spent months in briefings with lawmakers warning about default. In some of those meetings, officials said that if the U.S. government's bond rating were downgraded from Aaa to Aa, it could shave 1% off the gross domestic product and cost at least one million jobs. "Now is the time for our political leaders to act," the executives wrote. Treasury Department officials have said the government would only be able to spend the money it brings in each day through revenue if the debt ceiling isn't increased. The government is scheduled to pay $23 billion in Social Security benefits on Aug. 3, and it is only expected to bring in $12 billion that day in tax revenue, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Another emerging complication is a growing insistence by some Republicans that Congress pass a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution before a vote to increase the debt limit. The House is expected to vote on such an amendment next week, and Senate Republicans may force a vote in their chamber as well. Democrats say a balanced-budget amendment is a political sideshow that's unlikely to pass, especially because the GOP version requires super-majorities in Congress for raising taxes or spending.
Janet Hook contributed to this article.
Write to Damian Paletta at damian.paletta@wsj.com and Naftali Bendavid at naftali.bendavid@wsj.com
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Economic trouble puzzles Fed chief, too
Jun 22, 5:57 PM (ET)By PAUL WISEMAN and MARTIN CRUTSINGER
WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy's continuing struggles aren't just confounding ordinary Americans. They've also stumped the head of the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters Wednesday that the central bank had been caught off guard by recent signs of deterioration in the economy. And he said the troubles could continue into next year. "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting," Bernanke said. He said the weak housing market and problems in the banking system might be "more persistent than we thought." It was the Fed chief's most explicit warning yet that the economy will face serious challenges next year. For several months, he had said the factors working against economic growth appeared to be "transitory." The Fed cut its forecast for economic growth this year to a range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent from an April forecast of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent. It also cut its forecast for next year to a range of 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent from an earlier 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The Fed also said unemployment would stay higher than it had expected earlier. In a policy statement issued at the end of a two-day meeting, the Fed blamed the worsening economic outlook in part on higher energy prices and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which slowed production of cars and other products.
But at a press conference afterward, the second of what the Fed says will be regular question-and-answer sessions with reporters, Bernanke conceded the economy's troubles are more puzzling and potentially more long-lasting than a pair of temporary shocks. The Fed announcement, at 12:30 p.m., had little effect on the stock and bond markets. Bernanke began speaking at 2:15, and stocks started falling at about 2:30, when he acknowledged that some of the economy's problems could linger into next year. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 80 points for the day. The Fed's statement Wednesday stood in contrast to the Fed's more upbeat view when officials last met, eight weeks ago. At that time, the central bank said the job market was gradually improving.
Since then, the economic news has been gloomy. The government reported that the economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.8 percent in the first three months of the year. It isn't expected to grow much faster in the current quarter. The economy added 54,000 jobs in May, far fewer than in the previous two months. Consumer spending has weakened, too. The bad economic news is taking a political toll on President Barack Obama. For the first time this year, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that fewer than 50 percent of respondents believe Obama deserves re-election. Obama's overall approval rating fell to 52 percent in the new poll. It had risen as high as 60 percent after the U.S. raid last month in Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden. The new Fed statement acknowledged a slowdown over the past two months. "They see the weakness," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. "You can hear their concern about economic weakness despite their hope it is likely to be temporary."
The Fed stuck to its plan to bring an end this month to a program to help the economy by buying $600 billion in government bonds. The Fed also intends to keep short-term interest rates near zero "for an extended period," a phrase it has been using the past two years. Though the central bank noted that inflation has risen, it expects that to be temporary as well. The Fed has kept rates at ultra-low levels since December 2008. Abandoning the promise to keep them there for an "extended period" would be viewed as a signal that the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates. Many private economists think it will be another full year before the economy has recovered enough for the Fed to do it. Economists looking for clues to the Fed's next move didn't get much help Wednesday. "There's no obvious hint of tightening here," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global. "There's no hint of new easing." The bond-buying program has been controversial. Supporters say the bond purchases have kept interest rates low and encouraged spending. Low long-term rates make it easier to buy homes and cars and for companies to expand.
They also argue that those lower rates fueled a stock rally. Since Bernanke outlined plans for the program last August, the Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 24 percent. Lower rates made stocks more attractive to investors than bonds, whose yields were falling. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has stayed below 5 percent for all but two weeks this year and was 4.5 percent last week. But low rates haven't helped home sales much. They fell in May to the lowest level since November. Critics, including some Fed officials, saw things differently. They warned that by pumping so much money into the economy, the Fed increased the risks of high inflation later.
WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy's continuing struggles aren't just confounding ordinary Americans. They've also stumped the head of the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters Wednesday that the central bank had been caught off guard by recent signs of deterioration in the economy. And he said the troubles could continue into next year. "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting," Bernanke said. He said the weak housing market and problems in the banking system might be "more persistent than we thought." It was the Fed chief's most explicit warning yet that the economy will face serious challenges next year. For several months, he had said the factors working against economic growth appeared to be "transitory." The Fed cut its forecast for economic growth this year to a range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent from an April forecast of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent. It also cut its forecast for next year to a range of 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent from an earlier 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The Fed also said unemployment would stay higher than it had expected earlier. In a policy statement issued at the end of a two-day meeting, the Fed blamed the worsening economic outlook in part on higher energy prices and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which slowed production of cars and other products.
But at a press conference afterward, the second of what the Fed says will be regular question-and-answer sessions with reporters, Bernanke conceded the economy's troubles are more puzzling and potentially more long-lasting than a pair of temporary shocks. The Fed announcement, at 12:30 p.m., had little effect on the stock and bond markets. Bernanke began speaking at 2:15, and stocks started falling at about 2:30, when he acknowledged that some of the economy's problems could linger into next year. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 80 points for the day. The Fed's statement Wednesday stood in contrast to the Fed's more upbeat view when officials last met, eight weeks ago. At that time, the central bank said the job market was gradually improving.
Since then, the economic news has been gloomy. The government reported that the economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.8 percent in the first three months of the year. It isn't expected to grow much faster in the current quarter. The economy added 54,000 jobs in May, far fewer than in the previous two months. Consumer spending has weakened, too. The bad economic news is taking a political toll on President Barack Obama. For the first time this year, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that fewer than 50 percent of respondents believe Obama deserves re-election. Obama's overall approval rating fell to 52 percent in the new poll. It had risen as high as 60 percent after the U.S. raid last month in Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden. The new Fed statement acknowledged a slowdown over the past two months. "They see the weakness," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. "You can hear their concern about economic weakness despite their hope it is likely to be temporary."
The Fed stuck to its plan to bring an end this month to a program to help the economy by buying $600 billion in government bonds. The Fed also intends to keep short-term interest rates near zero "for an extended period," a phrase it has been using the past two years. Though the central bank noted that inflation has risen, it expects that to be temporary as well. The Fed has kept rates at ultra-low levels since December 2008. Abandoning the promise to keep them there for an "extended period" would be viewed as a signal that the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates. Many private economists think it will be another full year before the economy has recovered enough for the Fed to do it. Economists looking for clues to the Fed's next move didn't get much help Wednesday. "There's no obvious hint of tightening here," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global. "There's no hint of new easing." The bond-buying program has been controversial. Supporters say the bond purchases have kept interest rates low and encouraged spending. Low long-term rates make it easier to buy homes and cars and for companies to expand.
They also argue that those lower rates fueled a stock rally. Since Bernanke outlined plans for the program last August, the Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 24 percent. Lower rates made stocks more attractive to investors than bonds, whose yields were falling. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has stayed below 5 percent for all but two weeks this year and was 4.5 percent last week. But low rates haven't helped home sales much. They fell in May to the lowest level since November. Critics, including some Fed officials, saw things differently. They warned that by pumping so much money into the economy, the Fed increased the risks of high inflation later.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
US warns extreme food prices will stay
By Javier Blas and Gregory Meyer in Washington
Financial Times
February 24 2011
The world faces a protracted bout of extremely high food prices, the US government has warned, overwhelming farmers’ ability to cool commodity markets by planting millions of additional hectares with crops. The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday forecast nominal record farm-gate prices for corn, wheat and soyabeans in the crop year that begins with the 2011 harvests. It added that food inflation would surge in the second half of this year as wholesale prices filtered through the supply chain, affecting consumers.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
US forecasts no relief from rising food prices - Feb-24
In depth: Global food crisis - Feb-08
Video: Rural America and the commodity boom - Feb-23
Commodities Daily: Feeding the Middle East - Feb-24
Surging grain boosts US farmland prices - Feb-23
The warning at the USDA Outlook Forum in Washington, the biggest annual gathering of the agribusiness sector, is likely to fuel global concerns about rising inflation and the potential for destabilising food riots in developing countries. Joseph Glauber, USDA chief economist, told the conference that in spite of higher planting for corn and soyabeans this spring, grain and oilseed markets were “still forecast to be tight” in 2011-12 due to strong export and biofuel demand.
“While it is often said that the cure for high prices is high prices, even with additional supplies expected this year, it is likely that the tight stocks-to-use situation will not be entirely mitigated over the course of one or even two growing seasons,” he said. Mr Glauber forecast that the heavily subsidised US ethanol industry’s demand for corn would continue to grow in spite of higher input costs, consuming about 36 per cent of the domestic crop.
The ethanol industry has been criticised for driving food prices higher. But Tom Vilsack, US secretary of agriculture, ruled out any change in US ethanol policy. “There is no reason for us to take the foot off the gas,” said Mr Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa, a state in the US corn belt. Farm-gate prices received by growers for corn, soyabeans and wheat will hit average nominal records in 2011-12 of $5.60 a bushel, $13 a bushel and $7.50 a bushel respectively, the forecast said. Farm-gate prices are an indicator of wholesale prices. Analysts said the USDA forecasts for production, demand and stocks for the 2011-12 season and Mr Vilsack’s affirmative comments about ethanol meant agricultural commodities prices could surge even higher this year. “No pullback for agricultural commodities,” said Richard Feltes, a respected grain analyst with RJ O’Brien brokers in Chicago. “The speech [of Mr Vilsack] should be alarming to any corn consumer.” The USDA said that the country’s farmers would sow 92m acres with corn in the spring, the second-highest yet, and 78m with soyabeans, another record. As the US exports half of the world’s corn and a third of the world’s soyabeans, changes in US acreage and hence the potential supply has a global impact, affecting international buyers such as China.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.
Financial Times
February 24 2011
The world faces a protracted bout of extremely high food prices, the US government has warned, overwhelming farmers’ ability to cool commodity markets by planting millions of additional hectares with crops. The US Department of Agriculture on Thursday forecast nominal record farm-gate prices for corn, wheat and soyabeans in the crop year that begins with the 2011 harvests. It added that food inflation would surge in the second half of this year as wholesale prices filtered through the supply chain, affecting consumers.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
US forecasts no relief from rising food prices - Feb-24
In depth: Global food crisis - Feb-08
Video: Rural America and the commodity boom - Feb-23
Commodities Daily: Feeding the Middle East - Feb-24
Surging grain boosts US farmland prices - Feb-23
The warning at the USDA Outlook Forum in Washington, the biggest annual gathering of the agribusiness sector, is likely to fuel global concerns about rising inflation and the potential for destabilising food riots in developing countries. Joseph Glauber, USDA chief economist, told the conference that in spite of higher planting for corn and soyabeans this spring, grain and oilseed markets were “still forecast to be tight” in 2011-12 due to strong export and biofuel demand.
“While it is often said that the cure for high prices is high prices, even with additional supplies expected this year, it is likely that the tight stocks-to-use situation will not be entirely mitigated over the course of one or even two growing seasons,” he said. Mr Glauber forecast that the heavily subsidised US ethanol industry’s demand for corn would continue to grow in spite of higher input costs, consuming about 36 per cent of the domestic crop.
The ethanol industry has been criticised for driving food prices higher. But Tom Vilsack, US secretary of agriculture, ruled out any change in US ethanol policy. “There is no reason for us to take the foot off the gas,” said Mr Vilsack, the former governor of Iowa, a state in the US corn belt. Farm-gate prices received by growers for corn, soyabeans and wheat will hit average nominal records in 2011-12 of $5.60 a bushel, $13 a bushel and $7.50 a bushel respectively, the forecast said. Farm-gate prices are an indicator of wholesale prices. Analysts said the USDA forecasts for production, demand and stocks for the 2011-12 season and Mr Vilsack’s affirmative comments about ethanol meant agricultural commodities prices could surge even higher this year. “No pullback for agricultural commodities,” said Richard Feltes, a respected grain analyst with RJ O’Brien brokers in Chicago. “The speech [of Mr Vilsack] should be alarming to any corn consumer.” The USDA said that the country’s farmers would sow 92m acres with corn in the spring, the second-highest yet, and 78m with soyabeans, another record. As the US exports half of the world’s corn and a third of the world’s soyabeans, changes in US acreage and hence the potential supply has a global impact, affecting international buyers such as China.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.
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